System dynamics modeling of Mongolia’s forest fund and forest resources
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5564/jase-a.v6i1.4777Keywords:
Mongolian forest fund area, Mongolian forest resources, tree biomass, tree biomass system dynamics model, larch biomass, cedar biomass, pine biomassAbstract
The main objective of this research is to develop a dynamic model of the system to determine the future status of Mongolia's forest resources and forest fund areas, and to determine what risks and benefits are expected to arise in the future of Mongolia's forests, and when. This article is unique in that it calculates the biomass of growing Larch, cedar, and pine trees, which occupy the largest share of Mongolia's forest resources, using the mathematical method of system dynamic modeling in the Vensim program. According to our system dynamics model, the share of forest land in Mongolia's total area will remain relatively stable, but the share of forested land in total area is expected to decline from 8.07% in 2020 to 7.6% by 2080. The share of degraded and depleted forest land is also expected to increase to 2--3 times the current level. The main reasons for this are many factors, including improper use of natural forests, the impact of natural factors caused by climate change, and the lack of coordination of forest sector management policies. Also, the increase in the area degraded and depleted forest land is another reason for the decrease in the number of living trees per hectare of forest area and the increase in the area with dead, damaged, dried, and decayed trees. Larch, cedar, and pine trees are the most widespread trees in the forests of Mongolia, accounting for 94.15% of the total forest resources. The high average lifespan of these trees, which predominate in the natural forests of our country, is expected to lead to a shortage of forest resources in the future, which will negatively affect the growth of the environment, plants, and animals, as well as lead to many negative risks, such as a decrease in greenhouse gas absorption and a loss of forest ecological balance.
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