Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Umnugobi aimag (province), Mongolia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5564/pmas.v66i01.5264Keywords:
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), peak ground acceleration (PGA), logic-tree approach, ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), active faults, seismotectonic zones, Umnugobi provinceAbstract
his study presents a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Umnugobi (South Gobi) aimag (province), Mongolia, under rock site conditions using a probabilistic model. The analysis was based on integrated data from regional studies of seismic activity, seismotectonics, and active fault investigations. Seismic wave attenuation from earthquake sources was evaluated using a logic-tree approach with four ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs): Chandra (1979), BSSA-14, CB-14, and CY-14. In total, 28 active faults and five seismotectonic zones were included in the hazard model. The results provide peak ground acceleration (PGA) values corresponding to exceedance probabilities of 63 %, 10 %, and 2 % in 50 years, equivalent to return periods of 50, 475- year, and 2475- year, respectively. According to the current Mongolian seismic building code, the PGA values in Umnugob province are estimated at 134–165 cm/s² for a 475-year return period and 317–396 cm/s² for a 2475-year return period. These findings provide an important scientific basis for engineering seismology, infrastructure planning, seismic risk assessment, and land-use management in the Umnugobi region of Mongolia.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Dembereldulam Munkhjargal; Odonbaatar Chimed, Mungunsuren Dashdondog, Munkhsaikhan Amarsanaa, Oyunbileg Chanarav
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