21st century permafrost distribution under the scenario of RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in Mongolia

Abstract

Permafrost in Mongolia is at the southern edge of the Siberian permafrost, which is most vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used ERA5-Land data to determine the distribution of permafrost in Mongolia, and used MIROC5 data for future projection of the soil temperature. The future change of soil temperature obtained during 2020–2100 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios was RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively. This is a first attempt to identify the distribution of permafrost using ERA5-Land data in Mongolia. We examined the projection of permafrost distribution using RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in Mongolia. The rapid increase of near-surface temperature was obtained in RCP8.5 scenario during 2020-2100. Soil temperature also has a high increasing trend similar to the near-surface temperature in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Future projection suggests that permafrost will completely thaw in Mongolia when area-averaged soil temperature in Mongolia exceeds 1.8°C in comparison with the current climate.