Habitat modeling and future trends for the outbreak of the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.) in Mongolia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5564/pib.v39i2.3328Keywords:
trends, outbreak, Siberian moth, forest pestAbstract
The Siberian moth, Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetverikov, 1908 (Family Lasiocampidae), is recognized as the most destructive defoliator of Mongolia’s conifer forests. Our study was conducted at 14 locations within the Khentii mountain range, a known hotspot for moth outbreaks. Here, we measured various body sections of the caterpillars and calculated their population density. To model the habitat and potential outbreak tendency of this species, we utilized local weather data, global climate variables (Bio19), and other environmental layers. Our findings reveal a significant correlation between the distribution and outbreak of this species in Mongolia and several climatic factors: total precipitation, average temperature (p<0.001), winter precipitation (p<0.016), and spring precipitation (p<0.0002). Future projections suggest that outbreaks may occur biennially or triennially, with 7-8-year intervals, specifically in the periods 2024-2026 and 2032-2034. Additionally, we estimate the potential changes in the distribution range of the Siberian moth in under scenarios of temperature increases by 2.5°C and 4.50°C.
Сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.) амьдрах орчны загварчлал, олшролын цаашдын чиг хандлага
Хураангуй. Монгол орны шилмүүст ойд ноцтой хөнөөл учруулдаг сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн судалгааг Хэнтийн нуруунд голомт үүсгэсэн 14 талбайг сонгож хийв. Нийт талбайгаас хүрэнцрийн морфологи хэмжилтийг хийж, нягтшлийг тооцов. Мониторинг хийсэн нутгийн цаг агаарын мэдээ, дэлхийн уур амьсгалын Био-19 үзүүлэлт, хүрээлэн буй орчны давхарга бүхий бусад үзүүлэлтийг ашиглан сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн амьдрах орчин болон ирээдүйн хэт олшролыг загварчлав. Сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн тархалт, голомтонд хур тунадасны нийлбэр хэмжээ, дундаж температурын үзүүлэлт (p<0.001), өвлийн хур тунадас (p<0.016), хаврын хур тунадас (p<0.0002) бодитой хамааралтай болохыг үр дүн харуулж байна. 2024-2026, 2032-2034 онд сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн голомт үүсэх хандлагаас харахад хэт олшрол нь 7-8 жилийн хугацаатай, 2-3 жил үргэлжлэх прогноз батлагдав. Мөн агаарын температур 2.5°С ба 4.5°С-аар дулаарвал сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн голомт нутагт хэрхэн өөрчлөгдөхийг загварчлав.
Түлхүүр үгс: Ойн хөнөөлт шавж, сибирийн хүр эрвээхэй, голомт, чиг хандлага
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