Habitat modeling and future trends for the outbreak of the Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.) in Mongolia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5564/pib.v39i2.3328Keywords:
trends, outbreak, Siberian moth, forest pestAbstract
The Siberian moth, Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetverikov, 1908 (Family Lasiocampidae), is recognized as the most destructive defoliator of Mongolia’s conifer forests. Our study was conducted at 14 locations within the Khentii mountain range, a known hotspot for moth outbreaks. Here, we measured various body sections of the caterpillars and calculated their population density. To model the habitat and potential outbreak tendency of this species, we utilized local weather data, global climate variables (Bio19), and other environmental layers. Our findings reveal a significant correlation between the distribution and outbreak of this species in Mongolia and several climatic factors: total precipitation, average temperature (p<0.001), winter precipitation (p<0.016), and spring precipitation (p<0.0002). Future projections suggest that outbreaks may occur biennially or triennially, with 7-8-year intervals, specifically in the periods 2024-2026 and 2032-2034. Additionally, we estimate the potential changes in the distribution range of the Siberian moth in under scenarios of temperature increases by 2.5°C and 4.50°C.
Сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн (Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv.) амьдрах орчны загварчлал, олшролын цаашдын чиг хандлага
Хураангуй. Монгол орны шилмүүст ойд ноцтой хөнөөл учруулдаг сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн судалгааг Хэнтийн нуруунд голомт үүсгэсэн 14 талбайг сонгож хийв. Нийт талбайгаас хүрэнцрийн морфологи хэмжилтийг хийж, нягтшлийг тооцов. Мониторинг хийсэн нутгийн цаг агаарын мэдээ, дэлхийн уур амьсгалын Био-19 үзүүлэлт, хүрээлэн буй орчны давхарга бүхий бусад үзүүлэлтийг ашиглан сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн амьдрах орчин болон ирээдүйн хэт олшролыг загварчлав. Сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн тархалт, голомтонд хур тунадасны нийлбэр хэмжээ, дундаж температурын үзүүлэлт (p<0.001), өвлийн хур тунадас (p<0.016), хаврын хур тунадас (p<0.0002) бодитой хамааралтай болохыг үр дүн харуулж байна. 2024-2026, 2032-2034 онд сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн голомт үүсэх хандлагаас харахад хэт олшрол нь 7-8 жилийн хугацаатай, 2-3 жил үргэлжлэх прогноз батлагдав. Мөн агаарын температур 2.5°С ба 4.5°С-аар дулаарвал сибирийн хүр эрвээхэйн голомт нутагт хэрхэн өөрчлөгдөхийг загварчлав.
Түлхүүр үгс: Ойн хөнөөлт шавж, сибирийн хүр эрвээхэй, голомт, чиг хандлага
20
References
J. Puntsagdulam, D. Altanchimeg, D. Enkhnasan, B. Ganzorig. “Forest insects of Mongolia”. Admon Print LLC. Ulaanbaatar. 316p. 2020.
Ch. Dugarjav. “Larch Forest of Mongolia”. Bembi Foundation. Ulaanbaatar. 318p. 2006.
D. Dagvadorj, L. Natsagdorj, J. Dorjpurev, and B. Namkhainyam. Mongolia: Assessment Report on Climate Change. MNET, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. 2009.
B. Boldgiv. Some issues of climate change and human development in Mongolia. Report on Human development of Mongolia. 2011.
EPPO. Data sheets on quarantine pests: Dendrolimus sibiricus and Dendrolimus superans. EPPO Bull 35:390–395. 2005. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2338.2005.00878.x
Pal’nikova, E.N., Meteleva, M.K., and Sukhovol’skii, V.G., Influence of modifying factors on population dynamics of forest insects and mass reproduction bursts, Lesovedenie, 2006, no. 5, pp. 29-35.
Kharuk, V.I., Ranson, K.J., and Fedotova, E.V., Spatial pattern of Siberian silkmoth outbreak and taiga mortality, Scand. J. For. Res., 2007, vol. 22, no. 6, pp. 531– 536. https://doi.org/10.1080/02827580701763656
T. Rafoss, D. Flø D, Sundheim L, Wendell M, Brodal G, Ergon Å, Magnusson C, Sletten A, Solheim H, Tronsmo AM. Pest risk assessment of Dendrolimus sibiricus and Dendrolimus superans. In: Opinion of the Panel on Plant Health of the Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food and Environment, p 68 VKM report 2018:08, ISBN: 978–82–8259-305-2, ISSN: 2535–4019.
F. Daniel, T. Rafoss, M. Wendell, L. Sundheim. “The Siberian moth (Dendrolimus sibiricus), a pest risk assessment for Norway”. Forest Ecosystems 7:48. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40663-020-00258-9.
I. N. Pavlov, Y. A. Litovka, D. V. Golubeva, S. A. Astapenkoa, P. V. Chromogin. New Outbreak of Dendrolimus sibiricus Tschetv. in Siberia (2012–2017): Monitoring, Modeling and Biological Control. ISSN 1995-4255, Contemporary Problems of Ecology, 2018, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 406–419. © Pleiades Publishing, Ltd., 2018. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1995425518040054
I. V. Kozhanchikov. Orgyidae. Leningrad: Acad. Sciences of the USSR, ill.; 25 cm. Fauna of the USSR. No. 42. Lepidoptera / Ed. acad. E. N. Pavlovsky; T. 12: 581.1950.
J. Steven Phillips, P. Robert P. Anderson, and E. Robert Schapire. “Maximum entropy modeling of species geographic distributions”. Ecological Modelling. Vol. 190. 231–259. 2006. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.03.026
E. Jane, J. Steven Phillips, H. Trevor, D. Miroslav, E. Yung Chee, and J. Colin Yates. “A statistical explanation of MaxEnt for ecologists”. Diversity Distrib. 17, 43–57. Nov. 2011. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00725.x
V.P. Grechkin. “The main harmful insects of the forests of Mongolia.” In the book: Interuniversity conference. for forest protection. V.(2):20-23. Moscow. 1958.
D. Enkhnasan, D. Altanchimeg, Ts. Byambasuren, Ts. Erdenechimeg, Ch. Bat-Olziy. “Study of harmful insects of Khentii mountain range”. Proceedings of the seminar on the multidisciplinary study of the eco-environment. pp. 50-63. Department of Meteorological and Environmental Analysis. Ulaanbaatar. 2013.
L.P. Rysin. Siberian Stone Pine Forests of Russia; KMK Publishing: Moskow, Russia, 2011. ISBN 978-5-87317-771-4.
D.A. Demidko, A.A.Goroshko, O.A. Slinkina, P.V. Mikhaylov, S.M. Sultson. The Role of Forest Stands Characteristics on Formation of Exterior Migratory Outbreak Spots by the Siberian Silk Moth Dendrolimus sibiricus (Tschetv.) during Population Collapse. Forests, 14. 1078. 2023. https://doi.org/10.3390/f14061078
A.I. Vorontsov. “Forest entomology”. Moscow. 383p. 1982.
A.S. Rozhkov “Siberian moth”. Publishing house of the USSR Academy of Sciences. Moscow. 175p. 1965.
Y. N. Baranchikov, M.E. Montgomery. Chapter XXXVI. In: Siberian Moth, the use of classical biological control to preserve forests in North America, pp 383–391. 2014.
D. Enkhnasan, D. Altanchimeg. “Review of forest pest study of Mongolia and climate influence on their outbreak”. In the publication dedicated to the 30th anniversary of the Ministry of Education and Culture. Volume III: 45-55. 2017.5
D. Ray, A. Peace, R. Moore, M. Petr, Y. Grieve, C. Convery, T. Ziesche. Improved prediction of the climate-driven outbreaks of Dendrolimus pini in Pinus sylvestris forests. Forestry, 2016. 0:1 –15, https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpw007
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Davaadorj Enkhnasan, Dorjsuren Altanchimeg, Galsandorj Naranbaatar, Galbadrakh Mainjargal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Copyright on any research article in the Proceedings of the Institute of Biology is retained by the author(s).
The authors grant the Proceedings of the Institute of Biology license to publish the article and identify itself as the original publisher.
Articles in the Proceedings of the Institute of Biology are Open Access articles published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License - CC BY NC.
This license permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
