Climate Change Effects on High Mountain Land Cover: A Case Study of “Ikh Bogd” National Park, Mongolia

Uuganbat Ganbold; Ser-Od Tsedevdorj; Dash Doljin; Tsogbadral Khurelbaatar; Bat-Erdene Tsedev; Amgalan Avkhinsukh; Altanbold Enkhbold

doi:10.5564/mgs.v31i62.5399

Authors

Uuganbat Ganbold Department of Geography, School of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Mongolian National University of Education, Ulaanbaatar 14191, Mongolia https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2208-2454
Ser-Od Tsedevdorj Department of Geography, School of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Mongolian National University of Education, Ulaanbaatar 14191, Mongolia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5700-908X
Dash Doljin Department of Geography, School of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Mongolian National University of Education, Ulaanbaatar 14191, Mongolia https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5423-2526
Tsogbadral Khurelbaatar Department of Geography, School of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Mongolian National University of Education, Ulaanbaatar 14191, Mongolia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4494-0494
Bat-Erdene Tsedev Department of Geography, School of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Mongolian National University of Education, Ulaanbaatar 14191, Mongolia https://orcid.org/0009-0004-9735-6907
Amgalan Avkhinsukh Department of Geography, School of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Mongolian National University of Education, Ulaanbaatar 14191, Mongolia https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1916-9717
Altanbold Enkhbold Laboratory of Geopedology, Department of Geography, School of Arts and Sciences, National University of Mongolia, Ulaanbaatar 14200, Mongolia https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3810-449X

Keywords:

Climate Change, Land Cover, NDVI, LST, Precipitation

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate change on high-mountain land cover dynamics in the Ikh Bogd National Park, Bayankhongor Province, Mongolia, by analyzing summer (June-August) averages for the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, and 2025. Climatic data indicate a pronounced warming trend, particularly in winter. The absolute maximum temperature in January increased from -6.34°C in 2000 to -0.86°C in 2025, while the absolute minimum temperature rose from -30.4°C to -22.9°C, reflecting a stronger warming in the cold season. Annual precipitation increased substantially from 60.3 mm to 167.1 mm, with recent years showing higher variability and more frequent extreme precipitation events. Vegetation dynamics assessed using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index reveal an overall degradation trend. Maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values declined from approximately 0.39 in 2000 to 0.33 in 2010, alongside decreasing minimum values, indicating reduced vegetation density and increased fragmentation. Although partial recovery was observed in 2015-2025, vegetation remained sparse. Land surface temperature analysis shows elevated surface temperatures, with peak values recorded in 2005 and 2010, and continued warming in high-altitude zones (>3000 m), where temperatures increased by approximately 0.9°C between 2015 and 2025. A moderate negative correlation (r = -0.46) between Land surface temperature and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index suggests that rising temperatures adversely affect vegetation cover, particularly during drought conditions. Between 2000 and 2025, rock cover increased from 18.2% to 41.02%, sparse vegetation decreased slightly from 35.3% to 31.33%, and slight fluctuations were observed for medium and dense vegetation.

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